BACCARA will release:
1- A Decision-support tool to evaluate the influence of climate change on forest productivity through alteration of biodiversity
This will be a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tool to assess risk of biomass productivity loss trough alteration of forest diversity under climate change. It is based on commercial software, Decision Lab ®, whose aim is to help managers make decision and that BACCARA will use to compare forest compositions according to various criteria using standardized preference values.
The project will:
- Propose a set of criteria related to climate change effects on forest productivity. Each criterion will correspond to the predicted effect of a given climate-driven hazard (e.g. abiotic like severe drought, or biotic like pest insect outbreak).
- Provide a database with vulnerability scores for the main European forest categories (i.e. forest compositions) and a set of relevant climate-driven hazards.
- Deliver a database with predicted score values of hazard occurrence for different climate change scenarios that can be used to weight the above criteria.
- Deliver guidelines to implement the MCDA and organize training sessions with the end-users.
The end-users will:
- Enter their own additional criteria (e.g. costs, social or environmental impacts…).
- Choose the preference values for each criterion.
- Decide on the weight they want to apply to each criterion.
- Obtain classification of all the forest compositions they want to compare from the least to most preferable according to all criteria.
- Have the possibility to evaluate the robustness of the classification by varying parameters (weight, preference values, etc.).
2- Guidelines for forestry managers and decision makers
The project will issue two guidelines covering different topics and aiming at different targets:
- The Selection of tree species to be associated to sustain wood production to mitigate effects of climate change.This guideline (in English) is meant to be a flexible framework of "What-To-Grow" for forest managers according to climate change scenarios, forest categories, expected products. It will help managers to choose at the stand level the tree species to maintain, to introduce and to neglect. A summary report targeting policy makers will be extracted from the guidelines. It is designed to help politics to take measures to mitigate the climate change impacts taking into account economic and societal issues for instance by favouring particular tree species trough financial incentives.
- A choice of pest and pathogen species to be monitored according to forest categories and for given climate change scenarios will be also provided.It will be presented as a guideline about "What-To-Combat". This guideline will address international, national and regional organisations of which mission is to monitor forest health. Setup on the basis of lists of local pests and pathogens, it will be defined thanks to the functional groups determined by the BACCARA whose life traits will enable to classify the pests and pathogens likely to outbreak or increase their damage because of climate change. These guidelines will allow these agencies to focus means on emerging pest and pathogen threats. They will also provide predictive maps of possible pests and pathogens expansions due to climate change. As such they can also be considered as recommendations for landscape planning considering forest areas at risk due to climate change.